Every week, TallyPoint takes apart a single federal IT or technical-services contract: the hidden program-office budget and the exact moves it takes to unseat the incumbent. That work runs on heavy man-hours and it's built for one thing, a go/no-go decision on a contract you're already chasing.
This isn't that.
TallyPoint Signal is the monthly menu. Seven recompete or option-decision windows across the four hubs we watch (Dayton, Tampa, San Antonio, and Huntsville), each read for structural risk. It skips the modification histories and the price-escalation tracking. You get the raw signal, early enough to shape the requirement while the program office is still drafting the PWS.
A note on this month's list. All seven records were pulled from USASpending, and the value fields below use the award-detail endpoint, not a scraped forecast. The forecasted side (the service acquisition forecasts) was offline when I built this. I'd rather give you seven I can stand behind than pad the list with numbers I can't.
Want me to run one of these for your team this week?
Reply to this email with the word AUDIT and the opportunity that caught your eye. I'll build you a Recompete Audit on it for $500 and have it back to you before next weekend. It's the same data work that anchors a full capture plan, scoped to one contract and one question: is this worth your B&P money or not. The $500 credits toward the Intel Desk if you decide to go further.
The Menu
Seven opportunities. All sourced from USASpending.gov. "Obligated" means dollars already obligated. "Total value" means USASpending's base-and-exercised-options field; where relevant, I also call out the all-options value. Verify everything against SAM.gov before you act.
How to read this menu. Each opportunity carries a one-word play. Chase means it's open or about to be, the field is reachable, and the job is to win it. Watch means the real decision is far enough out that the work right now is positioning, not pursuit. Shape means it's locked sole-source today, so the only way in is to give the contracting office a reason to compete it. That used to be a long game. This month it isn't, and the market read below explains why. The split: three to chase, one to watch, and three to shape.
A straight read on the market. Three of these seven sit with protected sole-source incumbents: Alaskan Native, Native Hawaiian, and tribal 8(a) firms. Six months ago that meant move on. Not now. In January 2026 the Pentagon ordered a review of every active 8(a) sole-source and small-business set-aside contract over $20 million, with a second pass auditing whether the prime is doing the work or just passing it through to subs. Two of the three protected contracts below sit over that $20 million line. The sole-source cover that made them untouchable is the exact thing under the microscope, so the office's safe move, re-upping the incumbent, isn't so safe anymore. That doesn't hand you the work. It opens the door to make the case for competition, and the firm that wins when one of these cracks is the one already in the room. If you run a 15-person shop, your sure shots are the chase items below. Your highest-upside bet is to pick one of these pressure plays and start working the office now.
One more read on the same review. It doesn't only hit sole-source. The pass-through audit covers every set-aside over $20 million, so the three large competed incumbents here (No. 3, No. 5, and No. 6) are getting their limitation-on-subcontracting compliance checked too. An incumbent that leans on subs to carry the work is exposed, and that exposure is a second opening for a challenger who performs more of the scope in-house.
If you only move on one this month, it's No. 4, OM Group. Open competition, a thin two-offer field, a reachable ceiling, and a single vehicle question you can answer this week.
NO. 1 · EXPIRING · SHAPE
Cyberspace Operations Software Support, 90th COS
JBSA-Lackland, TX
PIID
FA877321C0003
Obligated
$17.0M
Total value
$20.9M current / $23.7M all options
Set-aside
8(a) sole-source; ANC-owned incumbent
Current period ends
February 28, 2027
Offers
1
Who this is for. 8(a) firms with cyber software or DevSecOps past performance supporting Air Force cyberspace operations.
Urgency. Eight months to a hard expiration with no option tail left to ride. The sole-source cover ends in February 2027. If you want a seat, the contracting office has to know you before it decides how to recompete.
Quick Analysis. One offer on the last award. Incumbent Cyberstar LLC holds 8(a) sole-source cover on a turn-key software development environment for the 90th Cyberspace Operations Squadron at the Air Force's cyber center of gravity. The guardrail: Cyberstar is Alaskan Native Corporation-owned, so this is not a simple "graduate and compete" story. Here's the tell, though. The obligated figure is $17M, but the current contract value is $20.9M. That puts it over the $20 million line in the Pentagon's January 2026 sole-source review, which is auditing exactly this kind of award for whether the work should be competed and whether the incumbent is really performing it. An ANC sole-source over the threshold is the textbook case the review was written for. The opening is real, but you have to make the office want competition, not wait for it. Source: USASpending Award Detail.
The play: Shape, and the pressure is real. Over the $20M line and squarely inside the Pentagon review. The best odds of the three protected contracts to open.
Chasing this one? Reply "CYBERSTAR AUDIT" and I'll map the recompete path and the credential gap a challenger has to close before February.
NO. 2 · EXPIRING · SHAPE
Air Force Site Surge Support, DHA
San Antonio, TX (Defense Health Agency)
PIID
HT001524C0005
Obligated
$27.4M
Total value
$37.0M current / $37.0M all options
Set-aside
8(a) sole-source; NHO-owned incumbent
Current period ends
March 28, 2027
Offers
1
Who this is for. 8(a) firms with military health IT, clinical informatics, or DHA support past performance.
Urgency. Nine months out, single award, sole-source. If this work recompetes, the requirement will likely be shaped well before the notice is public. Position now or read about the recompete later.
Quick Analysis. One offer. Incumbent Dawson CMS, LLC holds 8(a) sole-source cover on Air Force site surge support under the Defense Health Agency. Dawson is Native Hawaiian Organization-owned. Normally that's a hard wall. But at $37M current value, this contract is well inside the Pentagon's January 2026 review of 8(a) sole-source and set-aside awards over $20 million, and the second-phase audit is checking whether protected primes like this one are doing the work or passing it through. The opening is structural: this is sole-source today, and sole-source status is a choice the office can keep or reverse, and the choice is getting harder to defend. Source: USASpending Award Detail.
The play: Shape, and the pressure is real. At $37M it's well inside the review. Position now for the office to compete it.
Chasing this one? Reply "DAWSON AUDIT" and I'll show you what it takes to make the office comfortable competing it.
NO. 3 · EXPIRING · CHASE
MDA Enterprise Video and Network Services
Redstone Arsenal, AL (Missile Defense Agency)
PIID
HQ079618C0001
Obligated
$244.8M
Total value
$274.5M current / $308.6M all options
Set-aside
SDVOSB
Current period ends
October 31, 2027
Offers
5
Who this is for. SDVOSB firms with enterprise network, managed VTC, or large-scale classified communications past performance.
Urgency. A quarter-billion-dollar SDVOSB award is expiring at MDA, and a contract this size with a real prior competition will draw a crowd. The firms that make the short list in 2027 are building MDA relationships right now.
Quick Analysis. Five offers on the last award, so this one was competed, not handed out. Incumbent Network Management Resources has held it since 2018, which means deep incumbency and a high past-performance wall. This is the board-level read on the month: the largest reachable SDVOSB recompete on the list, and the one where teaming decisions matter more than a single capability gap. Source: USASpending Award Detail.
The play: Chase, with a team. Open competition, but a quarter-billion-dollar prime job needs scale or a strong teaming stack behind you.
Chasing this one? Reply "MDA AUDIT" and I'll break down the incumbent's footprint and where a challenger team has room.
NO. 4 · EXPIRING · CHASE · BEST BET
Army Enterprise Data Systems O&M
Huntsville, AL (Department of the Army)
PIID
W912HQ23F0064
Obligated
$10.0M
Total value
$10.0M current / $14.6M all options
Set-aside
8(a) competed
Current period ends
January 4, 2027; options to July 4, 2028
Offers
2
Who this is for. 8(a) firms with data-warehouse or enterprise data-systems O&M past performance.
Urgency. The base period ends January 2027, which is the real decision point even with options on the books. Two offers last time. A thin field is an opening for a credible challenger, not a closed door.
Quick Analysis. 8(a) competed, only two offers, $10M obligated. This is the reachable one on the list for a smaller shop. It's a multiple-award fair-opportunity task order under a GSA GWAC parent, so vehicle access is the gate before capability. Confirm you can compete on the parent vehicle before you spend a dollar chasing it. Source: USASpending Award Detail.
The play: Chase. Best bet on the menu. Reachable size, open competition, a thin field, and the one gating question (the vehicle) is answerable this week.
Chasing this one? Reply "OM GROUP AUDIT" and I'll check the vehicle path and the past-performance bar two offers really sets.
NO. 5 · EXPIRING · WATCH
MDA Advanced Research Center Support
Redstone Arsenal, AL (Missile Defense Agency)
PIID
HQ014719C0012
Obligated
$82.8M
Total value
$146.2M current / $253.7M all options
Set-aside
WOSB
Current period ends
February 17, 2027; options to August 17, 2030
Offers
4
Who this is for. WOSB firms with R&D, modeling and simulation, or test-support past performance in the missile-defense domain.
Urgency. Near-term option decision, long option tail. A WOSB set-aside at this scale and at MDA is rare. The office can still carry this to 2030, but the next decision point is much closer: February 2027.
Quick Analysis. Rare WOSB award with $82.8M obligated and $253.7M in all-options value. Four offers on the last competition. Incumbent DTECHLOGIC LLC holds Advanced Research Center support under PSC AC23, which means this is R&D-heavy MDA support, not commodity IT. The eligible WOSB field at this scale exists but it's small, which cuts both ways: a high bar to clear, and a short list to crack once you're on it. Source: USASpending Award Detail.
The play: Watch. The real window is 2028 and beyond. Spend now on the MDA relationship, not on a pursuit.
Chasing this one? Reply "DTECHLOGIC AUDIT" and I'll map the MDA WOSB field, the February option decision, and what a long-tail entry plan looks like.
NO. 6 · EXPIRING · CHASE
Enterprise Application and Training Services
Tampa, FL (GSA Federal Acquisition Service)
PIID
47QFCA25F0002
Obligated
$35.1M
Total value
$168.2M current / $461.4M all options
Set-aside
8(a) competed
Current period ends
December 18, 2026; options to December 18, 2029
Offers
5
Who this is for. 8(a) firms with enterprise application, training, engineering, or program-support past performance.
Urgency. The base period ends December 2026. Even with options, the next competitive window is forming now, and five prior offers tell you this lane is contested.
Quick Analysis. 8(a) competed, five offers, $35.1M obligated, and a much larger all-options value. Incumbent IT Concepts, Inc. holds EDAT services on a GSA FEDSIM task order. The competition is real, so the edge here is teaming and a clean past-performance match, not a structural gap. Confirm GSA vehicle access first, and do not treat this as pure software work: USASpending classifies the latest transaction under NAICS 541330 and PSC R408, which points toward engineering and program-support services. Source: USASpending Award Detail.
The play: Chase, if you hold the vehicle. Open and contested. FEDSIM access is the gate before anything else matters.
Chasing this one? Reply "EDAT AUDIT" and I'll map the field and the win themes that separate the top three from the pack.
NO. 7 · EXPIRING · SHAPE
AFRL Infrastructure Operations Support
Wright-Patterson AFB, OH (AFRL)
PIID
FA860424CB006
Obligated
$13.5M
Total value
$15.2M current / $28.8M all options
Set-aside
8(a) sole-source; tribally owned incumbent
Current period ends
March 12, 2027; options to September 12, 2029
Offers
1
Who this is for. 8(a) firms with IT infrastructure or network operations past performance at AFRL or across AFMC.
Urgency. The base period ends March 2027. That's the window where the office decides whether to re-up the incumbent or open it. Sole-source single award means the only way in is to be the reason they compete it.
Quick Analysis. One offer. Incumbent DNI Emerging Technologies, LLC holds 8(a) sole-source cover on infrastructure operations support at the Air Force Research Laboratory. DNI is tribally owned. One honest difference from the two above: at $15.2M current value, this one sits under the $20 million line, so it's not inside the Pentagon's specific review. It rides the broader pressure on sole-source, not the active audit, which makes it a slower burn. The opening is the March 2027 option decision and the office's choice about whether to keep this protected path or invite competition. Source: USASpending Award Detail.
The play: Shape, slower burn. Under the $20M review line, so it leans on general sole-source pressure, not the active audit.
Chasing this one? Reply "DNI AUDIT" and I'll show you the AFRL infrastructure footprint and the early-positioning play.
How to Work With TallyPoint
There are two winners to every contract: the firm that got awarded, and the firm that got to "no" fastest. Everything below is built to get you to one of those two outcomes before you've burned the B&P money.
The TallyPoint Brief. Free.
The weekly teardown and this monthly Signal. Top of the funnel. Costs you nothing.
The Recompete Audit. $500. The front door.
One contract, one question. I pull the primary-source data, read the structure, and tell you whether the recompete is worth your money and where the opening is if it is. Delivered within a week. The $500 credits toward the Intel Desk if you go further.
The Intel Desk. Retainer.
Capture intelligence on a retainer, for firms with incumbent work to protect and a pipeline to grow on purpose. Two layers. The Campaign Plan sets your two-to-three-year targeting course in month one ($5,000 to $7,500 setup, re-cut yearly). The monthly Capture Dossier advances it, finds the recompetes, tracks scope drift, and carries your go/no-go calls forward ($2,500 a month).
Here's why that line is good for you. You own the relationship, not me. Your team is the one in the room with the contracting officer, and your name is the one on the past performance. The trust that builds is yours to keep and grow. I work behind the data and stay there. There's no consultant standing between you and your customer, and no dependency you have to keep paying to maintain. You walk away from every engagement with sharper targeting and a customer relationship I never touched.
Contract data sourced from USASpending.gov, checked June 26, 2026. Government reporting carries roughly a 90-day lag. Obligated amounts, base-and-exercised-options values, all-options values, offer counts, set-asides, and period-of-performance dates are from the USASpending award-detail endpoint. The January 2026 sole-source review refers to Defense Secretary Hegseth's memo of that month (covered 8(a) sole-source and small-business set-asides over $20 million; Phase 1 due January 31, Phase 2 limitation-on-subcontracting audit due February 28), as reported across government-contracting legal and trade press. Do not rely on this data when responding to an official government solicitation. Verify all figures against SAM.gov before acting.
Best,
Micah