Seven recompete and option windows worth watching before they become everybody's chase.
TallyPoint Signal: September 2026 Pipeline Menu
Every week, TallyPoint takes apart a single federal IT or technical-services contract: the hidden program-office budget and the exact moves it takes to unseat the incumbent. That work runs on heavy man-hours and it's built for one thing, a go/no-go decision on a contract you're already chasing.
This isn't that.
TallyPoint Signal is the monthly menu. Seven recompete or option-decision windows across the four hubs we watch (Dayton, Tampa, San Antonio, and Huntsville), each read for structural risk. It skips the modification histories and the price-escalation tracking. You get the raw signal, early enough to shape the requirement while the program office is still drafting the PWS.
A note on this month's list. All seven records were pulled fresh from USASpending on August 15, 2026, and re-verified August 26. Value fields use the award-detail endpoint, not a scraped forecast. The forecasted side (service acquisition forecasts) is still thin in public form for several of these offices, so I'd rather give you seven I can stand behind than pad the list with numbers I can't.
Name a pursuit. Send the contract number.
If one of these cards catches your eye, reply with the PIID. I'll pull the primary-source data and tell you whether it's worth your B&P before you spend another month on it.
This window is limited while I balance it with the day job.
The Menu
Seven opportunities. All sourced from USASpending.gov. "Obligated" means dollars already obligated. "Current" means base-and-exercised-options. "All-options" means base-and-all-options potential value. Verify everything against SAM.gov before you act.
How to read this menu. Each opportunity carries a one-word play. Chase means the field is reachable and the near-term work is pursuit, not theater. Watch means the real decision is far enough out, or gated hard enough, that the job right now is positioning. Shape means it's locked sole-source today, so the only way in is to give the contracting office a reason to compete it. The split this month: one to chase, two to watch, three to shape, one small-shop shape.
A straight read on the market. In January 2026 the Pentagon ordered a line-by-line review of sole-source 8(a) awards and small-business set-asides over $20 million, then expanded the second pass into a limitation-on-subcontracting (pass-through) audit. That thesis still holds. What's different in September is that the shape of the openings finally matches the thesis.
Last month's protected sole-source picks all sat under $20M on current value. This month, Tatitlek clears $21.95M current. That's the first time a protected sole-source pick in this scan genuinely clears the review threshold on current value, not just on ceiling. The "pressure is real" argument finally has a specific number instead of a hedge.
The stronger opening this month is still Phase 2. The same review reaches large competed set-asides over $20M. If the prime is light on self-performance, the pass-through audit is a second door for a challenger who actually does the work. That hits Quiet Professionals ($49.1M), H2 Technology Group ($116.2M), and Goldbelt Apex ($25.4M).
HUBZone is thin this month. One HUBZone award landed in the window across all four hubs, and it already ran in August. Don't fake HUBZone coverage. The openings this month are in 8(a) and SDVOSB, and that's where the cards sit.
If you only move on one this month, it's No. 1, Quiet Professionals. It's the only card in the set that's both competed and close. Six firms bid it last time. The option tail runs only twelve months past the base end. And the size flag just got sharper: USASpending already reads the incumbent as "Not Designated a Small Business," and the reason is now on the public record. In May 2025 private-equity firm McNally Capital invested in Quiet Professionals; the firm then merged with Spathe Systems and, in May 2026, rebranded the combined company as Endurion. A PE-backed roll-up carrying an SDVOSB set-aside order is exactly the profile that does not survive the next size certification. If that read holds, an SDVOSB that still qualifies has a real shot.
1. Navy DCGS-MC Engineering Support - Tampa
1. Navy DCGS-MC Engineering Support - TampaChase
PIIDN6523624F3013InstallationTampa, FL (Navy / DCGS-MC program, Marine Corps)Obligated$25.1MTotal value$49.1M current / $64.8M all-optionsSet-asideSDVOSB set-asideCurrent period endsApril 17, 2027; potential end April 17, 2028Offers6Parent vehicleSeaPort-NxG N0017819D8383
Who this is for
SDVOSB firms with DCGS, intel-ISR, or Marine Corps engineering support past performance. You need SeaPort-NxG access or a teammate who holds it.
Urgency
The base period ends in about seven months. Six offers last time means the office already knows how to run this as a competition. The option tail is only twelve months, so the decision window is tighter than the cards with multi-year tails.
Quick analysis
Incumbent Quiet Professionals, LLC holds DCGS-Marine Corps engineering and support services. The size flag is the story: USASpending's business categories read "Not Designated a Small Business" while the order sits on an SDVOSB set-aside. The corporate record explains why. McNally Capital, a private-equity firm, invested in Quiet Professionals in May 2025; the company then merged with Spathe Systems and rebranded the combined entity as Endurion in May 2026 [Source: McNally Capital press release, May 11, 2026; GovCon Wire; Intelligence Community News]. That is a PE-backed roll-up wearing an SDVOSB set-aside - the exact fact pattern that fails at recertification. At $49.1M current value, the Phase 2 pass-through audit applies whether the incumbent is small or not. Source: USASpending Award Detail, pulled August 15, re-verified August 26, 2026.
The play: Chase. Best bet on the menu.
Competed, close, and the size flag now has a documented cause. Confirm the current SDVOSB certification and size status in SAM.gov entity registration under the Endurion/Quiet Professionals UEI before betting on it - the merger makes the direction clear, but the formal recertification date is the trigger. ---
2. MDA Administrative Services Support - Redstone
2. MDA Administrative Services Support - RedstoneShape
PIIDHQ085826CE001InstallationHuntsville / Redstone Arsenal, AL (Missile Defense Agency)Obligated$11.7MTotal value$21.95M current / $100.0M all-optionsSet-aside8(a) sole sourceCurrent period endsOctober 7, 2027; potential end April 7, 2033Offers1
Who this is for
8(a) firms with MDA administrative services, agency-operations, or contract-management support past performance. The scope is general management consulting, not engineering.
Urgency
Base end in October 2027. One offer. Sole source. The ceiling runs to $100M, which is exactly the profile the Pentagon review was written to look at. Nobody wins this by watching SAM.gov.
Quick analysis
Incumbent Tatitlek Management Services holds administrative services support for MDA. ANC-owned and tribally owned. Current value at $21.95M is the first card in three months of scanning that genuinely clears the $20M review threshold on current value, not just ceiling. The $100M ceiling on a one-offer sole source with a six-and-a-half-year option tail is the cleanest "pressure is real" example in the set. Source: USASpending Award Detail, pulled August 15, re-verified August 26, 2026.
The play: Shape.
The acquisition planning for the follow-on is happening now. Work the office, don't watch the board. ---
3. DHA Trauma System Development Support - San Antonio
3. DHA Trauma System Development Support - San AntonioShape
PIIDHT942525C0017InstallationSan Antonio / JBSA-Fort Sam Houston (Defense Health Agency)Obligated$13.5MTotal value$13.5M current / $13.5M all-optionsSet-aside8(a) sole sourceCurrent period endsFebruary 28, 2027 (hard end, no tail)Offers1
Who this is for
8(a) firms with trauma system, clinical data, or Joint Trauma System support experience. DHA-specific past performance is the door opener.
Urgency
No option tail. Base, current, and all-options are the same number. DHA has to make a fresh decision by the end of February 2027 or the work stops. That's the cleanest forcing date in the whole set.
Quick analysis
Incumbent Cherokee Nation Integrated Health holds trauma system development support for DHA. Tribally owned 8(a) sole source. Current value is $13.5M, under the $20M review line. But the hard end with zero ceiling headroom is the cleanest shape play on the board. The acquisition planning for the follow-on is happening right now. The FY2027 budget request includes $38.6M to modernize combat casualty care data and trauma systems, including the Joint Trauma Education and Training Directorate. That's budget context, not contract funding, but it tells you the mission isn't going away. Source: USASpending Award Detail, pulled August 15 & 26, 2026; FY2027 DHA Budget Estimates, COMP appropriation OP-5 Exhibit.
The play: Shape.
Hard end, no tail, tribally owned. The cleanest forcing date in the set. Next week's Brief is a full teardown of this contract. ---
4. Air Force Software Environment Management - San Antonio
4. Air Force Software Environment Management - San AntonioShape
PIIDFA830723CB001InstallationSan Antonio, TX (Department of the Air Force)Obligated$17.5MTotal value$18.97M current / $21.93M all-optionsSet-aside8(a) sole sourceCurrent period endsMay 8, 2027; potential end November 8, 2027Offers1
Who this is for
8(a) firms with Air Force software environment management, DevSecOps, or platform-engineering past performance. NHO-owned firm gets the sole-source threshold edge here.
Urgency
Current value is $18.97M, borderline at the $20M line. Ceiling clears $21.93M. The option tail is only six months, which means this contract is functionally done in late 2027 no matter what. The Air Force will be planning a follow-on well before then.
Quick analysis
Incumbent Namauu Technological and Industrial holds software environment management for the Air Force. NHO-owned, also HUBZone-registered. The short option tail is unusual for a protected sole source. Namauu also holds a second in-window award in San Antonio, FA703722C0006 ($18.7M current / $26.6M all, ends September 2027, hard end no tail). A challenger looking at one is really looking at two. Source: USASpending Award Detail, pulled August 15 & 26, 2026.
The play: Shape.
Borderline on the $20M line, short tail, two-award cluster. The September 15 Brief is a full teardown of both Namauu awards. ---
5. AFRL Strategic Partnering Support - Dayton
5. AFRL Strategic Partnering Support - DaytonShape
PIIDFA239625CB008InstallationDayton / Wright-Patterson AFB, OH (AFRL Strategic Partnering Directorate)Obligated$2.1MTotal value$2.87M current / $4.40M all-optionsSet-asideWOSB sole sourceCurrent period endsMarch 30, 2027; potential end March 30, 2028Offers1
Who this is for
WOSB firms with AFRL partnering, tech transfer, or strategic partnership past performance. Small dollars, but sole-source WOSB awards almost never happen.
Urgency
Small dollars, and that's the point. This is the only WOSB opening in Dayton in the whole window. A ten-person woman-owned firm with AFRL experience can carry this.
Quick analysis
Incumbent Infinite Management Solutions holds professional services support to the AFRL Strategic Partnering Directorate. WOSB sole source, also EDWOSB and SDVOSB. Under $3M current, so the Pentagon review doesn't touch it. But the general pressure on sole-source awards gives a challenger a reason to ask the AFRL contracting office why it isn't competed. Source: USASpending Award Detail, pulled August 15, re-verified August 26, 2026.
The play: Shape, small-shop lane.
The only WOSB sole source in the window. Small dollars, real opening if you have the past performance. ---
6. VA VHA Finance DevSecOps - Huntsville
6. VA VHA Finance DevSecOps - HuntsvilleWatch
PIID36C10B24F0430InstallationHuntsville, AL (VA / VHA Finance Product Line)Obligated$116.2MTotal value$116.2M current / $247.2M all-optionsSet-asideSDVOSB set-asideCurrent period endsSeptember 29, 2027; potential end September 29, 2029Offers8Parent vehicleGSA FSS 47QTCA24D008Y
Who this is for
SDVOSB firms with VHA finance, DevSecOps, or VA product-line development experience. You need a GSA FSS schedule or a teammate who holds one.
Urgency
The largest SDVOSB award expiring in-window across all four hubs. Eight offers means a real market with real competition. Current value is over $20M, which means it's inside the Phase 2 LOS audit even though it's competed, not sole source. The second opening: a challenger who self-performs more of the work has a compliance argument, not just a price argument.
Quick analysis
Incumbent H2 Technology Group holds VHA Finance DevSecOps. SDVOSB. Eight prior offers. The next live decision is September 2029, so position now and don't expect a bid this cycle. Source: USASpending Award Detail, pulled August 15, re-verified August 26, 2026.
The play: Watch.
Position now. Don't burn a full pursuit budget on a 2029 tail. ---
7. Army BAMC Logistics Support - San Antonio
7. Army BAMC Logistics Support - San AntonioWatch
PIIDW81K0024C0009InstallationSan Antonio / BAMC, JBSA-Fort Sam Houston (Army)Obligated$17.6MTotal value$25.4M current / $41.5M all-optionsSet-aside8(a) competedCurrent period endsApril 30, 2027; potential end October 31, 2029Offers31
Who this is for
8(a) firms with facilities logistics, FTE-heavy support, or Army medical logistics past performance. The 108-FTE scope means you need real staffing depth.
Urgency
Thirty-one offers. That's the number to lead with. It kills the idea that ANC-owned firms only win behind closed doors. This one won a wide-open 8(a) competition against thirty other bidders. Current value is over $20M so the Phase 2 pass-through audit applies. Decision is 2029, so this is a positioning read for a CGO, not a bid.
Quick analysis
Incumbent Goldbelt Apex, LLC holds logistics support for 108 FTEs at BAMC. ANC-owned. The 31-offer field is the proof point that competed 8(a) work clears huge ceilings when the office wants real support labor. A 108-FTE logistics contract is exactly where limitation-on-subcontracting compliance gets tested. Source: USASpending Award Detail, pulled August 15, re-verified August 26, 2026.
The play: Watch.
Know it's coming. Use it as proof that competed 8(a) still clears big ceilings with real competition. ---
Spread check
Hubs - Count: San Antonio 3, Huntsville 2, Tampa 1, Dayton 1
Certs - Count: 8(a) 3, SDVOSB 2, WOSB 1, HUBZone 0
Plays - Count: Shape 3, Watch 2, Chase 1, Small-shop shape 1
Ownership - Count: ANC 2, NHO 1, Tribal 2 (Tatitlek counts in both ANC and tribal)
San Antonio runs heavy because that's where the volume is (28 of 72 in-window awards). Dayton is light in the 7 but has bench depth. The Chase count is low because the window genuinely doesn't have many competed awards with a near-term decision. Don't manufacture a second Chase.
HUBZone is empty this month. One HUBZone award landed in the window across all four hubs, and it already ran in August. Say it's thin and tell those readers where the openings actually are.
Sole-source pressure: who's actually in scope
Thesis re-verified by web search on August 15, 2026. The January 16, 2026 Pentagon memo ordered a line-by-line review of all small business sole-source and set-aside awards over $20M. Phase 1 was mission-alignment, component lists due January 31. Phase 2 was the limitation-on-subcontracting audit, due February 28. Non-compliance goes to the DoD IG, SBA, and possibly DOJ.
Because Congress set the tribal and ANC sole-source threshold at $100M while individually owned 8(a) firms cap at $5.5M to $8.5M, the over-$20M sole-source population is almost entirely ANC, NHO, and tribally owned. That's the structural reason this review lands where it lands.
Over $20M current value (pressure is real):
HQ085826CE001 - Firm: Tatitlek Management Services; Current: $21.95M; Type: 8(a) sole source, ANC + tribal
W81K0024C0009 - Firm: Goldbelt Apex; Current: $25.42M; Type: 8(a) competed, ANC (Phase 2 LOS audit)
36C10B24F0430 - Firm: H2 Technology Group; Current: $116.19M; Type: SDVOSB competed (Phase 2 LOS audit)
N6523624F3013 - Firm: Quiet Professionals; Current: $49.11M; Type: SDVOSB competed (Phase 2 LOS audit)
Under $20M current value (general pressure only):
FA830723CB001 - Firm: Namauu Technological; Current: $18.97M; Note: Borderline. Ceiling is $21.93M.
HT942525C0017 - Firm: Cherokee Nation Integrated Health; Current: $13.49M; Note: No ceiling headroom at all
FA239625CB008 - Firm: Infinite Management Solutions; Current: $2.87M; Note: Too small to draw review attention
Unlike July and August, this month has one protected sole-source pick that is genuinely over the line. Tatitlek is the card that lets the issue make the "pressure is real" argument with a specific number instead of a hedge.
Caution: Trade coverage this summer reports a steep drop in new tribal 8(a) sole-source approvals since the memo. I could not tie that figure to a primary source. Leave it out until SBA or FPDS verification runs.
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Next week on The TallyPoint Brief
DHA's trauma system support contract has a hard February 28 deadline and no option tail. Cherokee Nation Integrated Health holds the 8(a) sole source at $13.5M. The FY2027 budget request includes $38.6M to modernize combat casualty care data and trauma systems. The mission isn't going away. The contract is. Full teardown next week.
Contract data sourced from USASpending.gov award-detail endpoint, checked August 15 and 26, 2026. Government reporting carries lag. Obligated amounts, base-and-exercised-options values, all-options values, offer counts, set-asides, and period-of-performance dates are from the USASpending award record. The January 2026 sole-source and set-aside review refers to the Defense Secretary's directive that month covering 8(a) sole-source and small-business set-asides over $20 million, with a Phase 2 limitation-on-subcontracting audit, as reported across government-contracting legal and trade press. Ownership flags (ANC, NHO, tribal) are taken from USASpending recipient business categories. SAM.gov follow-on searches were completed August 27, 2026 for the lead and shape cards and returned no public notices in the windows checked; treat "no public notice found" as a bounded check result, not proof no action exists. Do not rely on this data when responding to an official government solicitation. Verify all figures against SAM.gov before acting.
Best, Micah
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